sparkz
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posted on August 25, 2006 02:04:32 PM new
Tropical Depression 5 was just upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto a few minutes ago. Although it faces some wind shear areas in its path that could stop it, if it makes it past Jamaica, the NHC is predicting it will strengthen to a hurricane, possibly a large one. Heads up to the VD'rs from Texas to Florida.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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ladyjewels2000
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posted on August 25, 2006 05:29:14 PM new
Here we go again!!!
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roadsmith
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posted on August 25, 2006 06:03:59 PM new
It's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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bebeboom
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posted on August 26, 2006 09:18:26 PM new
Bags are packed.. and ready to evacuate once again.. hoping it won't be necessary, but after last year, we won't be taking any chances..
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sparkz
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posted on August 26, 2006 09:44:30 PM new
It's important to remember that the forecast path shown on the map above is by no means written in stone. It will change several times between now and landfall. Anything between Key West and Brownsville is still fair game. The map will update every 6 hours at 5 and 11 and more often as the storm approaches the U.S. By Monday night or Tuesday morning, the forecast will be much more clear and accurate.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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ladyjewels2000
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posted on August 27, 2006 05:42:52 AM new
Yeah I woke up (here in Jax, Fl) to a new weather lady saying if you aren't ready it's too late now. I'm thinking she won't be there tomorrow.
I'm not going to panic yet it still has some tall mountain to go over and that could change everything.
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niel35
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posted on August 27, 2006 08:58:56 AM new
And I moved up to St. Augustine to get away from the hurricanes. Damn things are following me. I think Calif. is my next move.
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irked
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posted on August 27, 2006 09:03:50 AM new
I am hoping for all you coasters that Ernesto fizzles out or just brings rain no wind. We got our first rain yesterday after 2 months of nothing. Humid as heck.
niel35 just a thought next move don't go to a coastal region. LOL
**************
Well, aren't we a ray of sunshine.
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sparkz
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posted on August 27, 2006 11:10:27 AM new
Ernesto got a sudden jolt of Gatoraid during the night and is now a Hurricane, the first of the season for the Atlantic. The NHC is now inclined to look at Florida as the probable landing zone. It will weaken somewhat, possibly to a tropical storm, because it will be passing over Cuba, but should intensify again once it hits the water on the other side. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are expected to be posted for the Keys later today. Those of you in Florida keep a close eye on this one. As Roadsmith said, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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ladyjewels2000
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posted on August 30, 2006 09:15:17 AM new
Looks like we lucked out on this one. 
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 10:35:45 AM new
LadyJ...Thanks to Haiti and Cuba for slowing this thing down, Florida and the gulf were able to dodge a big bullet. Out here on the west coast, we have a Category 4 hurricane spinning off the coast of Mexico with a tropical storm that will be a hurricane in the morning. This will be the 6th or seventh hurricane this season. Luckily, they all head away from us, so no problems yet so far.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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roadsmith
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posted on August 30, 2006 11:59:43 AM new
Sparkz: We used to spend two weeks every winter in Zihuatanejo (lovvvved it), and last we heard the latest hurricane was headed right for that area. If you hear anything, please let us know. We know for sure that the locals' homes are NOT windproof, and we really grew to love those people.
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 01:30:13 PM new
Roadsmith...Here are the latest updates on Hurricane John:
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301748
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL
ROBLITO.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES
...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115
KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
RECENTLY AN OBSERVING STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO
VICENTE...NEAR ZIHUATANEJO...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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roadsmith
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posted on August 30, 2006 02:52:48 PM new
"RECENTLY AN OBSERVING STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO
VICENTE...NEAR ZIHUATANEJO...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE."
Thanks, Sparkz. Oh, those poor people with the tin roof sheds! And the beach palapas that we used to fight over.
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 03:16:48 PM new
There is still some uncertainty as to whether the storm will make a direct hit or skim the coast. Even at that, a near miss by a category 4 hurricane is much more destructive than a direct hit by a cat 1 storm.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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irked
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posted on August 30, 2006 03:48:41 PM new
Hadn't heard a thing about John hurricane until today and it was Cat 4, guess they were asleep or it developed overnight kinda weird how I haven't heard about it.. Hope it takes a jog out to sea.
Earnesto did a good thing crapping out like it sorta did. Great English there. LOL Hope it does not pick up and get worse if it goes to the Carolina's and Virginia area. Talk like lots of rain though on already flooded areas in past few weeks.
Good luck everyone in its path.
**************
Well, aren't we a ray of sunshine.
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mikes4x4andtruckrepair
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posted on August 30, 2006 04:32:20 PM new
I'm kind of hoping Ernesto makes it to the MD/PA state line and doesn't fizzle out completly. Could use another good downpour of rain for a couple of day's to get the fields growing again so I get a good fall crop. Had a good first cutting this year of timothy, hay and clover. Would be nice to get a big second cutting too.
 1 out of 4 people are mentally unbalanced. Take a look at your 3 closest friends. If they seem alright, you're the one! - Kyle Stubbins, CMS
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classicrock000
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posted on August 30, 2006 04:56:37 PM new
how are the marijuana crops doing?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you dont want to hear the truth....dont ask the question.
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toasted36
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posted on August 30, 2006 04:59:15 PM new
That 2pm Thurs. is sitting right on top of me. I'm sure glad Ernesto fizzled out too
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 06:27:12 PM new
Toasted...Notice that the spot indicating 2 P.M. Thurs. has an "S" in it. That indicates a tropical storm. As soon as Enersto clears Florida and gets back over warm water, it is expected to intensify once again to a tropical storm before making landfall in S.C. This will be much stronger than the tropical depression presently over Florida.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 06:47:51 PM new
Roadsmith...Here's a picture of the Mexican radar screen at Cuyutlan. It shows how far inland John is reaching. You can tell by the position of the eye how close it is to coming ashore. This will be a cliffhanger for awhile.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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mikes4x4andtruckrepair
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posted on August 30, 2006 08:15:03 PM new
how are the marijuana crops doing?
You would have to ask the guy that lives about 1/2 mile down the road from me. From what I read in the paper they busted him about a month ago with 68 plants out back of his house. I get the feeling he will be living behind bars for quite some time. Not only was he growing it and distributing it but he was selling it to minors.
You know the more I think about it, it probably wouldn't do much good to ask him about the plants. You would have to ask the DEA agents that took them.
1 out of 4 people are mentally unbalanced. Take a look at your 3 closest friends. If they seem alright, you're the one! - Kyle Stubbins, CMS
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 08:50:11 PM new
Mike...You might not want the moisture from this storm. Flooding will be the major danger with Ernesto once it moves inland. Without going into a lot of detail, Ernesto will reach Pa. as a tropical depression with the potential of dumping 6" to a foot of rain in the eastern part of the state.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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mikes4x4andtruckrepair
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posted on August 30, 2006 09:00:53 PM new
Flood, what's a flood? Oh, that's right, that's what those people who build their houses next to water have to contend with. Bring it on!!! I'm about 120 feet elevation above the nearest stream and setting on top of a hill. I don't think I should have to worry about flooding to much.
1 out of 4 people are mentally unbalanced. Take a look at your 3 closest friends. If they seem alright, you're the one! - Kyle Stubbins, CMS
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sparkz
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posted on August 30, 2006 09:39:27 PM new
000
WTNT65 KNHC 310322
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1125 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
...RADAR AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...
DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41009 HAS REPORTED AN 8-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 36 MPH...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AT MELBOURNE
FLORIDA HAS SHOWN WINDS OF 45-60 MPH AT 1000-2500 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ERNESTO HAS
REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40
MPH EAST OF THE CENTER.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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sparkz
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posted on August 31, 2006 02:21:01 PM new
Ernesto is due to hit the N.C.-S.C. coastal border area in a few hours. It now has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, which is 4 mph short of hurricane strength. There is a strong possibility this storm will come ashore as a category 1 hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect along the Carolina coastline. Because it will be interacting with another onshore front, there will be a tremendous amount of rain involved, and major flooding will be a very real problem.
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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photosensitive
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posted on August 31, 2006 02:57:23 PM new
Looks like Maryland will get some rain out of this one. Hope so (but not too much) because it has been sooo dry here.
Wishing all in its direct path come out safe on the other side.
-----o----o----o----o----o----o----o----o
“The illiterate of the future will be the person ignorant of the use of the camera as well as of the pen.”
Maholy-Nagy, Vision in Motion, 1947
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toasted36
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posted on August 31, 2006 05:28:58 PM new
Well Ernesto pulled far enough away from the coast we didn't have but minor wind (20 mph) and very little rain. Hope everyone in upper SC and NC don't get to much rain.
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sparkz
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posted on August 31, 2006 07:14:32 PM new
It appears to be coming ashore now. There's some confusion over whether it's a tropical storm or a hurricane. They will have to wait till they get the readings from the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft. It's spawning tornadoes ahead of it, so it's a dangerous storm in more ways than one. Glad to hear you managed to dodge this one Toasted. Now would be a good time to go buy a lottery ticket
If Murphy's law is correct, everything East of the San Andreas Fault will slide into the Atlantic
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